Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 82

Detroit Lions 10 – Arizona Cardinals 0

(6:25) 3-J.Fox punts 55 yards to ARI 27, Center-47-S.Daly. 4-R.Moore to ARI 39 for 12 yards (45-J.Cabinda).

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.64 EP
71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 82, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model