Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 56

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Detroit Lions 10

(7:52) 14-A.Lee punts 49 yards to DET 7, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-K.Raymond to DET 21 for 14 yards (84-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.95 EP
70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 56, worth -3.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model