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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 19

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(:36) 2-E.McPherson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +3.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.91 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP