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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 63

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to CIN 13, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 83-T.Boyd.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.25 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -2.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP