Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 63

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to CIN 24, Center-46-T.Pepper. 23-D.Phillips MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-13-R.Cracraft at CIN 23. CIN-23-D.Phillips was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.84 EP
54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model