Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 19 at the 65

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – San Francisco 49ers 20

(4:49) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to SF 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at SF 15 for no gain (89-D.Sample).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.39 EP
74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model