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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 17

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(9:29) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.02 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model