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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 20 at the 63

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 29 yards to CIN 34, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.91 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model