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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 6

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 6, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model