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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 67

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 6-P.Harvin punts 40 yards to MIN 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 43 for 16 yards (54-U.Gilbert).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.05 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP