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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 31

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.49 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 31, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model