Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 55

Minnesota Vikings 36 – Pittsburgh Steelers 28

(2:26) 3-J.Berry punts 51 yards to PIT 4, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-45-T.Dye.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +0.63 EP
61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model