4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 39

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(8:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger scrambles up the middle to MIN 34 for 5 yards (90-S.Richardson). PENALTY on MIN-24-M.Alexander, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 34.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.54 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model