4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 24

Minnesota Vikings 23 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:41) 1-G.Joseph 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.40 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model