4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 35

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 1-G.Joseph 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.20 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT +0.28 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP