4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 79

Minnesota Vikings 23 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(:51) 3-J.Berry punts 46 yards to PIT 33, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.40 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 36, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP