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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 20 at the 61

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 23

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 6-P.Harvin punts 49 yards to MIN 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.98 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 61, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 20, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model