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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Minnesota Vikings
4th & 1 at the 51
Minnesota Vikings 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0
What Actually Happened
(6:52) 8-K.Cousins up the middle to PIT 48 for 3 yards (93-J.Schobert).
The Three Options
GO
+1.34 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.83 EP
- 28% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.43 EP
KICK
-1.01 EP
- 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
- 68% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT
-0.37 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
