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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 20

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:47) 1-G.Joseph 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.36 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT +0.64 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model