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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 86

New York Giants 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to LAC 40, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 7-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.32 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 86, worth -5.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 44, worth -2.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model