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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 62

New York Giants 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(8:05) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon pass incomplete short right to 31-K.Crossen.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.58 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.56 EP