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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 10

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 6-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.51 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 10, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model