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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 92

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 1-T.Long punts 33 yards to LAC 41, Center-54-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.66 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 92, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 50, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model