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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 67

New York Giants 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 9-R.Dixon punts 63 yards to LAC 4, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-31-K.Crossen.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.65 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP