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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 73

New York Giants 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to LAC 22, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 7-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.29 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP