Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 19 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

(5:52) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to TEN 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 24 for 2 yards (49-C.Russell; 50-S.Quarterman).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.31 EP
75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model