Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 73

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 20

(1:56) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 33-D.Ogunbowale to JAX 30 for 3 yards (21-M.Farley, 90-N.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

What Happened

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 73, worth -2.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.32 EP