Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 64

Tennessee Titans 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(4:30) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to JAX 18, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 4-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.05 EP
63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 64, worth -3.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model