Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 59

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 17

(8:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 18-L.Treadwell to TEN 47 for 12 yards (30-G.Mabin).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.59 EP
68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 59, worth -2.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model