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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 80

Tennessee Titans 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to JAX 41, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 4-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.25 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 80, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 37, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model