Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 59

Tennessee Titans 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to JAX 24, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 4-J.Mickens. PENALTY on TEN-29-D.Cruikshank, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.89 EP
68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 59, worth -2.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model