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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 73

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to TEN 30, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 31 for 1 yard (27-C.Claybrooks).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.31 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model