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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 48

Tennessee Titans 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 6-B.Kern punts 37 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 4-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.03 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP