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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 83

Tennessee Titans 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(:14) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to JAX 48, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-42-Jo.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.13 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 83, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 41, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model