Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 64

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(8:17) 5-T.Way punts 59 yards to DAL 5, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 1-C.Wilson to DAL 5 for no gain (51-D.Mayo). Penalty on DAL-32-C.Clement, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.07 EP
70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 64, worth -3.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model