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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 1

Washington Commanders 8 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(5:12) (Shotgun) 35-J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.15 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 1, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model