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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 82

Washington Commanders 8 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to DAL 33, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.61 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 82, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 40, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model