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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 17

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:41) 2-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.17 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model