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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 10 at the 41
Dallas Cowboys 24 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(9:24) 5-B.Anger punts 31 yards to WAS 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.21 EP
Model's Pick
-
32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.87 EP
- 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
KICK
-0.85 EP
- 43% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
- 57% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT
-0.31 EP
What Happened
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
