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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 58

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to DAL 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-2-D.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.84 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 58, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 18, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model