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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 55

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 18

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.01 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 55, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP