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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 7

Buffalo Bills 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

What Actually Happened

(:25) 2-T.Bass 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +4.11 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 7, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +2.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model