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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 60

Buffalo Bills 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

What Actually Happened

(1:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis pushed ob at BUF 45 for 5 yards (23-S.Murphy-Bunting).

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.79 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 60, worth -0.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model