Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 89

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 – Buffalo Bills 17

(8:17) 8-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to TB 46, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-48-G.Stuard.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.85 EP
58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 89, worth -5.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model