4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 3-M.Haack punts 45 yards to TB 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.64 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP