Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 62

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Buffalo Bills 10

(5:02) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to BUF 23, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-43-R.Cockrell.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.38 EP
58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 62, worth -3.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model