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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 34

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(11:15) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 84-C.Brate (49-T.Edmunds). PENALTY on BUF-91-E.Oliver, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.97 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 34, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 44, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model