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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

What Actually Happened

(12:34) (Punt formation) 22-M.Breida left end to BUF 42 for -3 yards (79-P.O'Connor).

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.64 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model