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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 62

Buffalo Bills 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 3-M.Haack punts 34 yards to TB 28, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.60 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model