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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 69

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 8-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to BUF 14, Center-97-Z.Triner. 5-M.Stevenson to BUF 18 for 4 yards (48-G.Stuard).

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.23 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 69, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 27, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP